Will the US withdraw from AUKUS under Trump?

Question

The pentagon has launched a review of the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal:

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/trump-administration-launches-review-biden-era-defense-pact-with-australia-uk-2025-06-11/

Resolves YES if the US withdraws from the pact, or substantially downgrades its involvment in it, while Trump is president.

As this could easily fall into a grey zone, I will not place any bet in this market. If the outcome is ambiguous, I will rely on a combination of sources and trader input to determine whether the Trump administration effectively "withdrew the US from AUKUS".

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 51% chance (7 traders, as of May 2, 2026).