Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Question

This market's resolution piggybacks on Jeff Atwood and John Carmack's bet documented on the Coding Horror blog: https://blog.codinghorror.com/the-2030-self-driving-car-bet/

However they resolve their bet is how this market resolves.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 72% chance (123 traders, as of Jul 3, 2026).