The impetus for this market is asking whether Elon Musk is correct in rejecting lidar sensors for self-driving.

1. Did the Tesla robotaxis in Austin in summer 2025 count?

 those were level 4, we need wider deployment (see next FAQ item) than that to count for this market.

We're currently discussing this in the comments. We can pick a threshold in terms of number of cars, number of autonomous miles, or pick some other operationalization.

No, but I don't know of anyone else attempting vision-only level 4 self-driving. So effectively yes, so far. But just in case, in the very unlikely event that Waymo drops all their fancy sensors before Tesla makes this work, that could still be a YES.

[ignore all the AI-generated clarifications below this line; nothing is official until added to the FAQ above]