Millions of Teslas at level 3 autonomy in 2026?

Question

On Tesla's April 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk said, "I predict that there will be millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously in the second half of next year."

We'll count Musk's prediction as (close enough to) correct if, by the end of 2026, there are strictly greater than 1 million Teslas (robotaxis or not) operating at level 3 autonomy (human in the driver's seat but who doesn't have to actively supervise) with minimal restrictions on what roads or under what conditions the car self-drives.

Related Markets

https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-tesla-count-as-a-waymo-competi

https://manifold.markets/dreev/when-will-i-be-able-to-read-a-book

[ignore any robo-clarifications below this line; I'll update the description above when we settle on clarifications]

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (17 traders, as of Aug 1, 2026).