Given NO peace deal between Ukraine and Russia before the end of February 2023, will nuclear weapons be launched in combat before the end of 2023?

Question

If there IS a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia AT ANY POINT between now and March 2023, this market resolves N/A at that time.

Otherwise, resolves to the same as https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-015e44ed91f5, whenever that does resolve.

"Peace deal" is a bit vague, but I'll try to keep it consistent with definitions used in other markets, esp https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-there-be-a-peace-agreement-in. Worst case I'll use a market to see if a peace deal has been reached, though I expect it will be clearer than that.

Paired market with https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/given-a-peace-deal-between-ukraine, in response to Robin Hanson's suggestion at https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1575642774384578560

(https://manifold.markets/embed/citrinitas/given-a-peace-deal-between-ukraine)Sep 29, 8:01pm: Clarified what happens if there's a deal that later falls through: as soon as there's any deal for any length of time, this market will N/A and the other market will go forward.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 15, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.