Will Venezuela become more authoritarian in 2026?

Question

This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if Venezuela's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report (which has yet to be published, but should come out in early 2026).

If Venezuela's democracy score for 2026 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.

See also:

@/cash/will-the-world-become-more-authorit-2R20yhg9dh

🇺‍🇸 @/cash/will-the-us-become-more-authoritari

🇺‍🇸 @/cash/will-the-united-states-become-more-QNC56OL95y

🇨🇳 @/cash/will-china-become-more-authoritaria-tQRh2Cq2Rq

🇷‍🇺  @/cash/will-russia-become-more-authoritari-IdZ9S8n2OC

🇩‍🇪 @/cash/will-germany-become-more-authoritar-2yzt80C9Ed

🇮‍🇳 @/cash/will-india-become-more-authoritaria-stcugnnShp

🇬‍🇧 @/cash/will-the-united-kingdom-become-more-RttphEh6ud

🇫‍🇷  @/cash/will-france-become-more-authoritari-06qZItS55S

🇨‍🇦 @/cash/will-canada-become-more-authoritari-yCclsR29cz

🇺‍🇦 @/cash/will-ukraine-become-more-authoritar-8tlNEgnpyI

🇮‍🇱 @/cash/will-israel-become-more-authoritari-CuIZNEQL8O

🇹🇷 @/cash/will-turkey-become-more-authoritari-UhPcCICSps

🇵‍🇱 @/cash/will-poland-become-more-authoritari-dlShlu0Ih5

🇦‍🇷 @/cash/will-argentina-become-more-authorit-ySct8hSZOz

🇿‍🇦 @/cash/will-south-africa-become-more-autho-uhLnQ6Zq90

🇲‍🇽 @/cash/will-mexico-become-more-authoritari-q6pQlLttpt

🇵‍🇰 @/cash/will-pakistan-become-more-authorita-Zyp086uApR

🇮‍🇷 @/cash/will-iran-become-more-authoritarian-dq20gc8u2I

🇯🇵 @/cash/will-japan-become-more-authoritaria-NQQs2s0PEs

🇰🇷 @/cash/will-south-korea-become-more-author-zsypSd8Eu2

🇻‍🇪 @/cash/will-venezuela-become-more-authorit-55hEzs2ls9 (this question)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 19% chance (72 traders, as of Apr 17, 2026).