Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth?

Question

Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.

For 2023, Berkeley Earth reported global warming was 1.54 °C.

This question resolves YES if Berkeley Earth reports that annual average warming is equal to or higher than 2.00 degrees Celsius for any year before 2030 (i.e. 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, or 2029).

See also:

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 11% chance (26 traders, as of Jan 18, 2026).