: On the first day of the three months prior to the US presidential election (i.e. 1 Sep, 1 Oct, 1 Nov) I will record in a spreadsheet the probabilities (rounded to nearest integer) each forecasting product has most recently assigned to either a Democrat or Republican winning in each Electoral College region. When the actual results are finalized post-election, I will take a Brier score based on the forecasts made for the candidate that ultimately won, and add up the total for each forecasting product.

The forecasting product with the lowest Brier score resolves YES, all other forecasting products resolve NO.

: For an election forecasting product to be eligible to resolve YES, the forecasting product must:

An election forecasting product that someone adds to this question that fails any of these criteria for inclusion will resolve NO and I won’t track its probabilities.

Below are links to the forecasting products/models that meet the criteria for inclusion so far: