Manifold user futures market: will @jack's portfolio increase by 100% by Dec 15, 2022?

Question

This market is an experiment in allowing "investments" in the portfolios of other Manifold users.

From Oct 15 to Nov 15 (GMT), the value of @jack's portfolio went from M$108,000 to $165,450, an increase of 53%. This was not an outlier: the value of @jack's portfolio was M$11,380 on July 15, M$26,400 on Aug 15 (+132.0%), M$33,700 on Sept 15 (+27.6%), and had +220.5% growth to October.  The average of these monthly growth rates is 108%. There is reason to believe that the rate of growth is going to be lower in December (fewer high-value markets resolving, surviving counterparties being more sophisticated ), but @jack may surprise.

This market resolves YES if the value of @jack's portfolio has more than doubled on Dec 15. More precisely, if the value of @jack's portfolio is greater than M$330,900 at 00:00:00 GMT on Dec 15, then this market will resolve "YES".

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Dec 15, 2022 by Manifold Markets prediction market.