Which countries will ban social media for teens by EOY 2026?

Question

Resolves YES iff a social media ban is introduced for at least some teenagers (anyone, but not necessarily everyone, ages 13-19) in the relevant country by December 31st, 2026. The ban must encompass at least two social media sites. The ban must become law by EOY 2026 (not just announced). For this market, partial restrictions (e.g. limits on smartphone screen time or curfews) do not suffice.

I am far from an expert in the current laws and restrictions in each of these countries, so there may be some edge cases. If there is a dispute, I will attempt to rule in the spirit of the question - whether there are new laws that a reasonable person would describe as a social media ban.

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Update 2025-12-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The ban must be nationwide to count. Subnational bans (e.g., a ban in only one state or province) will not be sufficient for resolution.

Update 2025-12-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A law that also bans some adults (in addition to teens) will still count for resolution purposes.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, France, followed by Malaysia and United Kingdom are most likely. See the market for live updates (35 traders, as of Mar 20, 2026).