When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by drone?

Question

https://twitter.com/ilaffey2/status/1759353732075294766

They're notable if there's a Wikipedia article about them.

If it happens in 2024, it'll resolve 1%; if it happens in 2025, it'll resolve 2%, etc.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 22% chance (15 traders, as of Jun 4, 2026).