Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2022?

Question

Protests have been going on for several days around the country now, following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody, and at least some involved in the protests are calling for regime change. However, large-scale protests have happened before and have not resulted in regime change. Will this time be different?

This question will resolve as YES if the collapse of the regime is reported by a reputable news source such as AP or Reuters by 11:59 pm on December 31, 2022. Otherwise, it will resolve as NO.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 1, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.