Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Question

Mar 10, 1:36pm: Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people? → Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 19% chance (44 traders, as of Oct 4, 2026).