Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Question

OpenAI recently announced plans to transition into a for-profit entity and turn the non-profit into a separate organization that is funded via its OpenAI stock. From today's announcement:

“Our plan would result in one of the best resourced non-profits in history. The non-profit’s significant interest in the existing for-profit would take the form of shares in [OpenAI] at a fair valuation determined by independent financial advisors. This will multiply the resources that our donors gave manyfold.”

OpenAI is currently worth $175 Billion, and it’s expected that 10-25% of shares would go to the nonprofit in exchange for them giving up the control of the for-profit company they currently have.

OpenAI's stated mission is to "build artificial general intelligence (AGI) that is safe and benefits all of humanity", and the non-profit's Certificate of Incorporation states "The specific purpose of this corporation is to provide funding for research, development and distribution of technology related to artificial intelligence."

However, today's announcement conspicuously omits any mention of AI or AI safety work, stating "The non-profit will hire a leadership team and staff to pursue charitable initiatives in sectors such as health care, education, and science."

As a 501c3 they are not allowed to engage in any political lobbying or attempts to influence legislation.

This market will resolve YES if the OpenAI non-profit announces in 2025 that AI safety research will be one of their main funding areas.

Support for AI generally with no mention of safety will resolve this market NO. If the OpenAI restructuring does not happen and the OpenAI non-profit doesn't have any funds to allocate, this market resolves No.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 38% chance (36 traders, as of Jan 11, 2026).