Will OpenAI "merge and assist" by end of 2026?

Question

OpenAI charter has a clause where it commits to join forces with a value-aligned organization and assist (with alignment and such), if this other org has some level of good chance of getting AGI soon. Refer to OpenAI charter for details.

Resolves to YES if by end of 2026 OpenAI (publicly) merges under another organization in the spirit of this clause.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (38 traders, as of Feb 20, 2026).