IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Question

This is a market that is attempting to evaluate the probability of AI wiping out humanity by 2030 conditional on artificial superintelligence existing.

If artificial superintelligence does not exist by 2030, this market will resolve to N/A.

This market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027 as do the linked markets.

Inspired by https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1686140175993487364

Related markets: 
https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r?r=RWxpZXplcll1ZGtvd3NreQ
https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-artificial-superintelligence-e

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 38% chance (58 traders, as of Apr 10, 2026).