Will Russia control Slavyansk by the end of 2029?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, at any time before the close date, Russia controls the entirety of Slavyansk, Donetsk Oblast according to a consensus of reputable media outlets or war mappers.

This market will otherwise resolve NO at the close date.

Close date

This market is set to close at 22:00 UTC on 31 December 2029.

Clarifications

I may trade in this market. If I believe the resolution of this market is likely to be contentious, I will either sell my shares or entrust a Manifold mod with resolving the market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 52% chance (4 traders, as of Jun 10, 2026).