Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of July 2026?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, at the close date, Labor has a larger primary vote share than One Nation according to a majority of the following pollsters:

Roy Morgan

Pyxis (Newspoll)

Essential

YouGov

DemosAU

This market will otherwise resolve NO.

Close date

This market is set to close at 14:00 UTC on 31 July 2026.

Clarifications

This market concerns federal voting intention polls of the Australian population.

The most recently published voting intention poll from each pollster at the close date will be used.

I may trade in this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 96% chance (30 traders, as of Jul 30, 2026).