Which party will win the next Clacton by-election (after 13 August)?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the party whose candidate is elected at the second Clacton by-election held between 8 July 2026 and the date of the next general election.

If no such by-election takes place, this market will be voided.

Clarifications

The close date may be changed as necessary.

To bet on the result of the first by-election, see this market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/a_l_e_x/which-party-will-win-the-clacton-by)To bet on whether there will be a second by-election, see this market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/a_l_e_x/if-nigel-farage-wins-the-clacton-by)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Reform UK, followed by Other and Restore Britain are most likely. See the market for live updates (6 traders, as of Aug 14, 2026).