Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2028?

Question

Resolution criteria

An option in this market will resolve YES if, at 23:59:00 local time on 1 January 2028, same-sex marriages have legal recognition in the stated jurisdiction.

Each option will otherwise resolve NO.

Clarifications

For the purpose of this market, a jurisdiction may recognise same-sex marriages without necessarily performing them. If, for example, a jurisdiction only recognises same-sex marriages performed extraterritorially, this is sufficient to resolve YES.

It is not sufficient, however, for a jurisdiction to allow informal same-sex marriages with no legal recognition.

I may trade in this market. If I believe the resolution of this market is likely to be contentious, I will either sell my shares or entrust a Manifold mod with resolving the market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Texas, followed by Florida and South Africa are most likely. See the market for live updates (3 traders, as of May 18, 2026).