If Nigel Farage wins the Clacton by-election, will he be recalled anyway?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if Nigel Farage wins the upcoming Clacton by-election and a successful recall petition forces him to vacate the seat again before the next general election for the House of Commons.

This market will resolve NO if Nigel Farage wins the upcoming Clacton by-election and he is not recalled before the next general election for the House of Commons.

This market will be voided if Nigel Farage does not win the Clacton by-election.

Clarifications

The close date may be changed as necessary.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 47% chance (5 traders, as of Jul 8, 2026).