Will there be a trans genocide in America in the next four years?

Question

There have been claims on the Internet that the new Trump administration would bring about a "trans genocide". Resolves YES if the rate of trans murders in any year between 2025 and 2028 is more than 10 times the rate in 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.

By "rate of trans murders", I mean the total number of reported murders of trans people in the USA throughout the year, divided by the number of trans people in the USA at the end of the year. Nonbinary and other gender-nonconforming people will also be included. I will use my own judgement as to which sources to trust, and expect to aggregate statistics from multiple reputable sources if there is significant disagreement.

Also automatically resolves YES if the United States federal government, or any state government, officially implements a policy in which being trans (or crossdressing, etc.) is punished by death.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 7% chance (39 traders, as of Jan 31, 2026).