Are the “Patriot Front” marchers 20% feds?

Question

[tweet]On twitter, people seem pretty convinced that this is some sort of entrapment operation with a very heavy percentage of undercover law enforcement officers.

[tweet]This question is asking whether evidence will come to light for or against this proposition.

I'll be honest that I don't have a perfectly clear idea of how to operationalize this, but hopefully we'll get some good suggestions in the comments. I hesitate to do even an overridable Keynesian market since people often have very different ideas from available evidence. I would lean toward a "Only resolves if there is evidence, otherwise resolves N/A, but I'm afraid it might be lopsided towards YES, since it feels less likely there would be hard evidence if the answer was NO.

For now, bet your true beliefs and we'll try to work out something fair in the comments.

I will not be betting in this market, since it involves a judgement call.

I would note that I am not generally a conspiracy theorist and lean skeptical towards this claim.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 23% chance (13 traders, as of Feb 15, 2026).