Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Question

A "serious relationship" is defined s.t. the all of the following conditions must hold:

We will date for at least 6 months.

During some period of 6 months in which we will be dating, we will spend some time with each other on at least 15 different days.

We will have sex on at least 8 different occasions.

[EDIT 2025-04-14: For the purpose of this market, a person is considered "cisgender" when either they explicitly identify as a cisgender person of the sex assigned to them at birth, or they satisfy both of the following criteria:

They made no medical interventions to alter their sexual characteristics.

They use the pronouns corresponding to their sex assigned at birth, and the same for any gendered grammar in any language of relevance to them.]

My manifold.love profile: https://manifoldlove.com/VanessaKosoy

Additional context: Out of the relationships I had in my life, 3 met those criteria (one pre-transition with a cisgender woman and two post-transition with transfeminine people) and another was marginal (post-transition, with a cisgender man).

Feel free to ask relevant questions about me!

I will not trade on this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, With a cisgender man, followed by With a transfeminine person and With a transmasculine person are most likely. See the market for live updates (31 traders, as of Aug 21, 2026).