When will IMDb's top 10 films stably include a different movie (starting 4/2024)?

Question

IMDb keeps a list called "IMDb Top 250 Movies: As rated by regular IMDb voters."

https://m.imdb.com/chart/top/

Here are the top 10 as of April 2024:

1. The Shawshank Redemption

2. The Godfather

3. The Dark Knight

4. The Godfather Part II

5. 12 Angry Men

6. Schindler's List

7. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

8. Pulp Fiction

9. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

10. The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

When will a different movie replace one of these?

(A simple change in order among these top 10 will not resolve this market.)

Edit:

The intention of the market is to predict long-term changes to the top-10 list, not transient changes.

It is common for new releases to appear on the top-10 list in a transient way. A new release will only be considered "stably included" on the top-10 list if it is three months past its theatrical release date. This might lead to a delayed resolution for certain time brackets listed on the market; for instance, if a new release appears on the top-10 list on December 31, 2024, then the "2024" time bracket will resolve three months after the film's release, or when the film has dropped out of the top-10, whichever comes first.

By contrast, if an older film (more than 3 months past its release date) breaks into the top-10 list, then the relevant time brackets can resolve immediately to YES.

Update 2025-12-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If IMDb changes their ranking algorithm in a major way such that "as rated by regular users" no longer seems to apply, the market will resolve to N/A. However, smaller algorithm changes are allowed as long as they preserve the intention of the ranking.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2029 or before, followed by 2028 or before and 2027 or before are most likely. See the market for live updates (7 traders, as of Dec 31, 2025).