IMDb keeps a list called "IMDb Top 250 Movies: As rated by regular IMDb voters."

7. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

9. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

When will a different movie replace one of these?

(A simple change in order among these top 10 will not resolve this market.)

The intention of the market is to predict long-term changes to the top-10 list, not transient changes.

It is common for new releases to appear on the top-10 list in a transient way. A new release will only be considered "stably included" on the top-10 list if it is three months past its theatrical release date. This might lead to a delayed resolution for certain time brackets listed on the market; for instance, if a new release appears on the top-10 list on December 31, 2024, then the "2024" time bracket will resolve three months after the film's release, or when the film has dropped out of the top-10, whichever comes first.

By contrast, if an older film (more than 3 months past its release date) breaks into the top-10 list, then the relevant time brackets can resolve immediately to YES.