Will One Nation win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election in Australia?

Question

The next federal election to elect the 49th Parliament of Australia must occur before the 23rd of September, 2028. If One Nation gets a majority of seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, this market will resolve YES.

Otherwise NO.

To be clear, because they have to win a majority of seats for this market to resolve to YES, even if they form a minority government (e.g. as Labor did in 2010) with the help of crossbenchers declaring support on confidence and supply, this market will still resolve to NO.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 24% chance (15 traders, as of Jul 18, 2026).