Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027?

Question

In a July 2025 post titled 'Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically', Gary Marcus wrote:

My p(doom) is still lower than most industry people’s. I am at maybe 3% now, much higher than a month ago

This question will concern any future updates of a similar kind that Gary Marcus may publicly make. If he suggests in public that his p(doom) has risen further to some figure at or above 10% before 2027, this market will resolve YES.

Otherwise the market will resolve NO.

Qualifiers like "maybe" or "about" or "approximately" or "-ish" will not affect resolution - if Marcus says "about 10%" for example, this will be enough to resolve YES. However, Marcus needs to make clear that either his p(doom) is some specific number that is 10% or higher, or he needs to make clear that his number is at least 10% or higher, in some public capacity (private conversations will not qualify).

Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text. I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.

P(doom|something else) is not P(doom).

Feel free to ask any questions if you want any clarification.

Eliezer P(doom) market: https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 22% chance (10 traders, as of Feb 26, 2026).