It will be rated Mighty on OpenCritic (90th or above percentile)

It will be nominated for at least one award at the Game Awards 2024

It will be nominated for multiple awards at the Game Awards 2024

It will win an award at the Game Awards 2024

It will win multiple awards at the Game Awards 2024

It will sell 1 million copies before July

It will sell 1.5 million copies before July

It will sell 2 million copies before July

It will sell 2.5 million copies before July

It will sell 3 million copies before July

It will sell 3.5 million copies before July

It will sell 4 million copies before July

It will sell 5 million copies before July

It will sell 8 million copies before July

It will sell more (by the end of Fiscal Year ending March 2025) than the lifetime sales of the original release of Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door (i.e. >1.91M copies)

It will sell more copies in Fiscal Year ending March 2025 than Super Paper Mario did in Financial Year ending March 2008 (i.e. >2.27M copies)

It will sell more (by the end of Fiscal Year ending March 2025) than lifetime sales of Paper Mario: Sticker Star (i.e. >2.49M copies)

It will sell more copies in (calendar year) 2024 than the Nintendo Switch release of Super Mario RPG did in (calendar year) 2023 (i.e. >3.14M copies)

It will sell more (by the end of Fiscal Year ending March 2025) than lifetime sales of Super Paper Mario (i.e. >4.23M copies)

It will sell more (by the end of Fiscal Year ending March 2025) than twice the lifetime sales of Paper Mario: Sticker Star (i.e. >4.98M copies)

It will sell more (by the end of Fiscal Year ending March 2025) than triple the lifetime sales of the original release of Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door (i.e. >5.73M copies)

It will sell more (by the end of Fiscal Year ending March 2025) than double what Paper Mario: The Origami King sold by the end of FY ending March 2021 (i.e. >6.24M copies)

It will sell more (by the end of Fiscal Year ending March 2025) than what Mario Party Superstars sold by the end of FY ending March 2022 (i.e. >6.88M copies)

It will sell more (by the end of Fiscal Year ending March 2025) than what Super Mario 3D All-Stars sold by the end of FY ending March 2021 (i.e. >9.01M copies)

It will have the highest Metascore of any Paper Mario game

Mighty designation is determined by OpenCritic: 

Scores will be checked a few weeks after release.

The Game Awards 2024 is being held on 12 December, 2024: 

Sales figures resolutions will be based on Nintendo's IR materials, specifically the 'Million-Seller' list. If Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door doesn't make it onto the 'Million-Seller' list for the IR release concerning sales from April 2024 to June 2024 (usually released in August each year) then it will be assumed to have not sold at least 1 million copies before July. Calendar Year 2024 questions will be based on the IR release covering sales up to December 31 usually released in February. Fiscal Year ended March 2025 questions will be based on the IR release usually released in May.

Lifetime sales figures are based on CESA White Paper figures. 

If you have any questions please ask in the comments!