"Manhattan Project" for AGI before 2029?

Question

In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts a US-government led project to build AGI in 2027/2028:

Somewhere around 26/27 or so, the mood in Washington will become somber. People will start to viscerally feel what is happening; they will be scared. From the halls of the Pentagon to the backroom Congressional briefings will ring the obvious question, the question on everybody’s minds: do we need an AGI Manhattan Project?
...
by late 26/27/28 it will be underway.

This market resolves YES if all of the following are true about a US government project:

"The core AGI research team (a few hundred researchers) will move to a secure location". For this market, we will use "at least 200 researchers" in place of "a few hundred researchers".

The project is "primarily in the domain of national security".

A "trillion-dollar [AI] cluster will be built". For this resolution criterion, there will need to be an outlay of a trillion dollars for compute in the project before market close.

This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):

@/Tossup/lasa-will-models-be-able-to-do-the

@/Tossup/lasa-100b-ai-training-cluster-by-th

@/Tossup/lasa-1t-ai-training-cluster-by-the

@/Tossup/lasa-by-the-end-of-2027-will-anyone

@/Tossup/lasa-by-the-end-of-2027-will-there

@/Tossup/lasa-will-a-tech-company-buy-an-alu

@/Tossup/lasa-manhattan-project-for-agi-befo

@/Tossup/lasa-1gw-ai-training-run-before-202

@/Tossup/lasa-10gw-training-run-before-2029

@/Tossup/lasa-100gw-ai-training-run-before-2

Other markets about Leopold's predictions:

@/ZviMowshowitz/will-we-develop-leopolds-dropin-rem

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 36% chance (50 traders, as of Jan 13, 2026).