Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Question

NANOGrav recently made headlines by observing the stochastic gravitational waves background produced by the combination of many supermassive black hole binaries. Will a Pulsar Timing Array successfully pinpoint and resolve a specific supermassive black hole binary as a point source of gravitational waves before the year 2030.

This question will be resolved with a "YES" if a Pulsar Timing Arrays colaboration  announces the successful identification of a point source of gravitational waves with a significance  exceeding 3σ by the year 2030. Otherwise, it will be resolved as "NO."

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 50% chance (17 traders, as of Mar 7, 2026).