Will birthright citizenship end in the United States by the end of Trump's term?

Question

Background: The 14th Amendment to the United States Constitution has historically been interpreted to grant citizenship to anyone born on U.S. soil, regardless of their parents' citizenship status (with exceptions for children of foreign diplomats). However, there have been political calls to end or modify birthright citizenship. This question will resolve based on whether the Trump administration enacts policies or laws that result in at least one individual born in the U.S., who would traditionally have been recognized as a citizen under the 14th Amendment, being denied citizenship or having their citizenship rescinded.

Question: Will at least one person born on U.S. soil during Donald Trump’s second term be denied U.S. citizenship (or have their citizenship rescinded) due to a change in the interpretation or application of the 14th Amendment by the U.S. government?

Resolution Criteria:

Yes: This question will resolve as "Yes" if:

There is credible, verified documentation (e.g., court rulings, official government records, or reputable investigative journalism) confirming that an individual born on U.S. soil (not to a diplomat or otherwise excluded under the current interpretation of the 14th Amendment) is denied U.S. citizenship at birth or has their citizenship rescinded during Trump's second term, due to changes in the interpretation or enforcement of the 14th Amendment.

The denial of citizenship must result from an official policy decision or legal change, not from a clerical error, unintentional administrative oversight, or an isolated case of misinterpretation that is later corrected.

No: This question will resolve as "No" otherwise.

Clarifications:

Mere proposals, discussions, or statements without implemented action will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

Actions that are immediately stayed, blocked, or later reversed such that no individual is ultimately denied or loses citizenship will not count for a "Yes" resolution.

Any legal ambiguity or challenge will be resolved based on the final documented outcome for the individual(s) involved within Trump’s term.

Sources: Credible sources for resolution include U.S. court records, official statements from relevant government agencies (e.g., USCIS, Department of State), and investigative journalism from reputable media outlets.

Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Official Government Record Denial Counts

The market will resolve as “Yes” if an official government record (e.g., from USCIS) initially shows that an individual born in the U.S. was denied citizenship, even if that decision is later reversed through an appeal.

A lengthy delay between the official record denial and the subsequent court reversal does not prevent the outcome from being counted as a “Yes.”

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (60 traders, as of Oct 15, 2026).