I'm betting YES to provide self-motivation, my actual predicted probability is about 20-30%.

I have 1 week to cram the second half of the lectures from this past term. There are 3 exams, and 2 of them determine 100% of the respective module mark. I also haven't done a single practice question yet this term.  The degree is in a science subject at a somewhat prestigious UK university.

Resolves to the portion of exams on which I have at least 50% credence that I scored at least 40% (pass mark).