Will Donald Trump post an image of himself as the prophet Muhammad?

Question

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c17v8y0z9z2o

[image]https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrg8zkz8d0o

[image]Donald Trump recently posted an AI-generated image of himself as Jesus of Nazareth, and has previously also done this as the Pope. Will he make a similar third post, depicting himself as the prophet Muhammad, before the end of his second term?

The post can be on Truth Social, Twitter/X, Facebook etc. and may be posted either by his personal account or an official White House account. Retweets/shares of relevant images by these specified accounts will also count. The photo need not be AI-generated, e.g. it would suffice for Trump to dress up in a costume and post a photo of it. However, it would not suffice for Trump to dress up without posting a photo of it. If such a post appears before 12:00 on 20 Jan 2029 (US Eastern Time) this market resolves YES. If not, this market resolves NO. I will by default use my best judgement, but if resolution is a controversial grey area edge case then I may use a Manifold poll.

Inspired by @/diracdeltafunk/will-donald-trump-tweet-an-image-of

Update 2026-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified how they will evaluate whether an image qualifies as depicting Trump as the prophet Muhammad:

A similar standard of proof will be used as in the Jesus market: the image must have such an extreme degree of visual similarity to recognized depictions of Muhammad that it seems beyond reasonable doubt the creator intended it as such

Since Islamic tradition generally forbids pictorial depictions of Muhammad, there is no single dominant visual version — multiple traditions will be considered (Persian miniature, Ottoman veiled, Kashmiri flame, medieval European, etc.)

Illustrative (non-exhaustive) traits that might be expected in a qualifying image include: a long white robe with a green shawl, darker skin tone, a dark beard, and Islamic-associated headwear (turban, kufi, taqiyah, keffiyeh, etc.)

If resolution is a genuinely ambiguous grey area, the creator may defer to a Manifold poll

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (194 traders, as of Sep 30, 2026).