Will a new non-AI technology with at least as much impact on society as the internet or TV did be developed before AGI?

Question

Will resolve to a separate poll when there is major news source consensus that human-level AGI has been achieved. I'll keep extending it until then if 2030 isn't enough time.

Should have both high impact and wide adoption, so e.g. immortality just for super rich wouldn't count, but room temperature ambient pressure superconductivity in every device would.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 22% chance (12 traders, as of Jun 26, 2025).