By 2030, will the academic community lean in favour of insecticide-treated bed nets having net-positive overall impact?

Question

Resolves yes if, between January 2024 and January 2030, there is a greater number of meta-analysis papers published in peer-reviewed academic journals concluding that insecticide-treated bed nets (such as those provided by The Against Malaria Foundation and recommended by Givewell) have a net-positive overall impact on humans and animals (wellbeing, not just biodiverisity) than those concluding against.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 89% chance (14 traders, as of Mar 8, 2026).