If Donald Trump is elected president in the 2024 election, what will the annualised GDP growth rate be over his term?

Question

Richard Hanania has wrote a blog post claiming that he hates modern conservativism but wants Trump to win on the grounds of economic growth. Jeremiah Johnson is skeptical:

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This sounds like uncertainty over a future observable!

If Donald Trump is elected president in the 2024 election, this will resolve by the annualised real GDP growth rate for the United States in the years 2025-2028, as given by the World Bank. Otherwise, this will resolve N/A.

Corresponding question for Harris:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Tetraspace/if-kamala-harris-is-elected-preside-rhu8i1pqxb)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2-3%, followed by 3-4% and 4-5% are most likely. See the market for live updates (14 traders, as of Sep 2, 2026).