Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Question

I (Tamay Besiroglu) bet the mathematician Daniel Litt that the best AI models in March of 2030 would be capable of generating math papers in Number Theory at the level of quality of papers published in Annals today (i.e. 2025). https://x.com/tamaybes/status/1899262088369106953?s=46

The AI would receive no detailed guidance relevant to the mathematics research, and is required to accomplish this task autonomously.

The AI system(s) are granted a total budget of $100k in inference compute per paper.

This bet would be resolved on the basis of Daniel Litt’s judgment.

Update 2025-03-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Novel Research Requirement Clarification:

For a YES resolution, the AI must perform novel research autonomously, not just produce a paper that could pass as research.

Update 2025-03-23 (PST): - Budget Currency: The $100k inference compute budget is expressed in nominal dollars (current currency) with no inflation adjustment. (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator endorsed an interpretation (via a previously posted ChatGPT response to a user's question) regarding the market's resolution. This endorsement suggests:

The market generally requires demonstrating repeatable capability in generating Annals-quality math papers.

However, a single, exceptionally significant autonomous achievement by an AI (such as proving the Riemann hypothesis) before 2030 would also be considered sufficient for a YES resolution.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 95% chance (342 traders, as of Jul 21, 2026).