Will Elon Musk shut down Twitter by end of 2027? (conditioned on deal closing)

Question

Resolves as YES if Twitter is no longer in business for any reason.
Resolves as YES if Twitter has been renamed and legacy users and tweets have been purged.
Resolves as NO if Twitter has been renamed but retains users and/or tweets.
Resolves as NO if Twitter is still in business.
Resolves as N/A if Musk's purchase of Twitter does not close.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (23 traders, as of Jan 19, 2026).