Will resolve YES if AI instigates or is directly involved in a scandal, conflict, or other such issue affecting relations between world actors (governments, leaders, economies, organizations etc.). No matter how big, it must have repercussions beyond a single nation.

It doesn't have to be extreme, but hopefully those examples give some idea of the allowable possibility space.

Stuff that probably wouldn't hit the bar, imo:

If discussion gets heated and I am biased by any investment in the market, I'm open to resolving based on a neutral party's determination, though I'll probably rid myself of my stake first. I also reserve the right to temporarily close the market if we need to sort out contentious minutiae at some point before continuing.

If the market reaches the close date without any qualifying incident, it resolves NO.