Which gaming companies will shut down by end 2030?

Question

The video game industry is currently at the end of a long consolidation period of a 20-30 year economic-creative cycle I define loosely as:

Consolidation -> Stagnation -> Fracture -> Innovation Boom -> Re-Establishment -> Consolidation...

But due to pressures after a COVID-era mini boom and investment decline across tech, it seems the Stagnation period is hitting full swing with mass layoffs. 2023 was a rough year for workers and yet 2024 is already far worse.

[tweet]As major studios, publishers, and related tech companies teeter with overgrown bloat post-Consolidation, how many will end up so far overexposed that they collapse? This question attempts to track one aspect of that.

Feel free to add any relevant game companies, whether they be development studios, publishers, distros, engine providers, hardware suppliers, or related tech; subsidiaries, independently-owned, or umbrella companies; big or small. Ambiguous answers may be renamed for precision.

Each will resolve YES if by 2030 they:

announce they're shutting down

they're a full subsidiary and their parent company announces shut down

they layoff 90%+ of their total workforce

they're forced to fracture by antitrust litigation

they're purchased and sold for parts

or they're disbanded for any other reason

Laying off a whole named division doesn't count unless it's listed here separately.

Otherwise they resolve NO after 2030.

Compare/ contrast:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Stralor/which-gaming-companies-will-layoff)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Ubisoft, followed by Electronic Arts and NetEase are most likely. See the market for live updates (37 traders, as of Apr 1, 2026).