Death of Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate

Sex scandal or sexual harassment accusations

Video surfaces of inappropriate candidate remarks from before October

Video that is widely rumored to be, or is, a deepfake

Criminal act or rumored criminal act by family member of candidate

Coup or regime change in a geopolitically significant country

Democratic or Republican candidate resigns

Donald Trump becomes Speaker of the House

Accusations of an abusive workplace environment (NOT a sexual harassment accusation)

All-out war declared between Israel and Iran

United States military actively involved in combat in Israel-Iran war

Podcast with Rogan, Elon, RFK and Trump explains what MAHA is really about.

In US Presidential elections, a phenomenon known as an October Surprise often occurs.  An October Surprise is a last-minute dramatic event that changes the dynamics of the race.

Some, but not all, October Surprises have changed the results of the election.

This market will resolve to the most important event where the first public knowledge of the event's occurrance was revealed in October or November, and the event happened before the election, and the event had significant media coverage that dwarfed all other issues and events at the time.  

The single answer will be what the mainstream media consensus is on Thanksgiving 2024.  If there is media coverage of two events of equal importance such that a decision is difficult, the one that provided a benefit to the winner of the election will be selected.  In the unlikely event there is no major news that media outlets judge as decisively having impacted the election that broke in October or November, the market will resolve to "None."