Will national gas prices in the US average above $3.60

Question

Official bet with economist Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan and Platypus Media about national gas prices. The bet has to do with the average price of gas in the US the Friday before election day, aka October 30th, 2026 (12pm est). I officially bet the average gas price (as dictated by GasBuddy) for the US will clock in above $3.60 a gallon, Justin bets the average price will come in below that.

At stake: $200 each to be donated to a Platypus charity of Justin's choosing

If your guess is the closest to the actual price, you will get free Platypus merch! (TBC - to be created)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 96% chance (38 traders, as of Sep 21, 2026).