Will I be active in 2030 to resolve my turn of the decade president market?

Question

Resolves YES if I am personally using Manifold in January 2030 and am able to resolve my linked market.

Resolves NO if I have been inactive and that market is resolved by anyone else.

If my linked market resolves entirely N/A, or is canceled, or resolves erroneously this market resolves based on whether I am active and make any trades or market resolutions within January 2030.

If no one can make any trades or resolve any markets on Manifold (or what was formerly known as Manifold) this market resolved N/A.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/SpeaksForTrees/who-will-be-the-president-of-americ)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 50% chance (9 traders, as of Mar 24, 2026).