Will global peak oil production occur before 2029?

Question

Resolves YES if total world oil production is lower in 2029 and 2030 from a peak in or before the year 2028, AND there is a majority consensus among world energy economics experts that peak oil was likely reached in or before 2028.

Resolves NO if world total oil production is clearly above 2028 levels in 2029 or 2030.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

"Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price."

[image]from: https://yearbook.enerdata.net/crude-oil/world-production-statistics.html

(https://manifold.markets/embed/SpeaksForTrees/will-global-peak-oil-production-occ)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SpeaksForTrees/will-global-peak-oil-production-occ-84db8de9deea)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 59% chance (29 traders, as of Feb 10, 2026).