Will the New York Times (NYT) achieve a favorable outcome in its copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Question

Resolution Criteria

Favorable Outcome Defined: A favorable outcome for the New York Times (NYT) would be defined as meeting at least one of the following conditions:

The court rules in favor of the NYT on any of the major claims.

OpenAI and/or Microsoft agree to a settlement that involves monetary compensation, content usage changes, or other concessions beneficial to the NYT.

The court orders a cease in the use of NYT’s content by OpenAI and Microsoft or demands the destruction of training data that includes NYT content.

Sources of Verification: Official court documents, credible news reports, or direct statements from the parties involved (NYT, OpenAI, Microsoft) will be used to verify the outcome.

Ambiguity Clause: If the outcome is ambiguous or partial (e.g., minor concessions without a clear win for NYT), the question will be resolved as No. Only clear, substantial wins as per the defined criteria will resolve this question as Yes.

Exclusions: Minor procedural wins or losses, interim rulings, or outcomes not directly affecting the central claims of the lawsuit will not count towards resolving this bet.

@SirCryptomind generally has a better understanding of the legal environment and has a very similar market on this if you wish to bet on it:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-new-york-times-win-a-lawsu)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 80% chance (79 traders, as of May 10, 2026).