By the end of 2026 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?

Question

This market seeks to predict the ability to use AI to generate meaningful parts of an impressive game.

We are not concerned with precision down to the level of generating a good Settings menu, but trying to take a qualitative look at how relevant overall the AI is.

Individual examples that would cause this market to resolve YES:
- All (or the overwhelming majority) of assets are AI generated -> YES 
- All game mechanics are AI generated  -> YES
- All the story / dialogue elements are AI generated in a visual novel -> YES

At the end of 2026 if this market closes and no game has met the critera, this market will resolve NO.

FAQ:

What counts as a game?

I am fleshing out two main requirements: 
1. It must be listed as a game for sale on Steam, Epic, game consoles, or equivalent online game storefronts. 
2. There must be tangible game rules, with explicit victory and loss states. 
(Open ended chat sandboxes are not the interesting question, as we basically already have those.)

What if the assets are AI-generated but human-edited?

For the purposes of this market this will NOT count.

Continuing the trend of these markets:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakySly/by-the-end-of-2024-will-there-be-a)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakySly/by-the-end-of-2025-will-there-be-a)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakySly/by-the-end-of-2027-will-there-be-a-64ca5caf73c1?r=U25lYWt5U2x5)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 20% chance (86 traders, as of Aug 5, 2026).