Bets on fusion: which ones will be true by 2037?

Question

I loved this comment by @pyrylium in my market on the timeline for nuclear fusion reactors:

https://manifold.markets/SimoneRomeo/when-will-a-nuclear-fusion-reactor?tab=comments#4vi261mb80j

He was scheptical about nuclear fusion not from an engineering perspective but from an economical perspective. I thought his comment made a lot of interesting points to bet on.

Option 1 means that at least a fusion reactor will produce energy and be connected to the grid

Options 2 and 3 resolve N/A if option 1 is No

Option 3 is slightly different than 2 as we cannot be certain about the future costs of other energy sources

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Fusion energy will be achieved, followed by If achieved, it will be the cheapest energy source and If achieved, it will cost <2¢/kWh are most likely. See the market for live updates (13 traders, as of Sep 16, 2026).