[ARK predictions] what will global GDP be in 2030?

Question

ARK Invest just published a white paper called Platforms Of Innovation. The white paper contains many opportunities to bet on the economic impact of converging technologies.

In 2023, global GDP was $105trillions. The white paper provides the following figures about GDP in 2030:

Consensus GDP: $130t

Projected GDP Consistent with Technological History: $170t (consensus+ARK forecast of robotaxis and adaptive robotics economical impact)

AI Ark Forecast: $330t (forecast that includes the additional impact of AI)

Source

This market allows to speculate on the projections contained in the white paper.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, <$130 trillions, followed by $130-170 trillions and $170-330 trillions are most likely. See the market for live updates (4 traders, as of Mar 23, 2024).