Will 85% of the "gone dark" subreddits return by Wednesday 18th October?

Question

On 12th June, almost 9,000 subreddits went dark as a protest due to changes being proposed by Reddit.

The changes went into force and some of the subreddits (including subreddits with millions of subscribers) have remained dark to express their opposition.

We've had markets up on how long it will take 75% and 80% to come back up - we originally thought that there would be a mass return of the markets in a few days but they originally took a lot longer than expected!

Now we're looking at how long it will take for 85% of the subreddits to come back.

@/MP/will-the-subreddits-return-by-frida

@/MP/will-subreddits-return-by-monday

@/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits

@/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-3baa7207de33

@/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-1355726bd833

@/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-5462c36f8fe1

@/SimonGrayson/will-80-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits

@/SimonGrayson/will-80-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-ac21eed14be6

@/SimonGrayson/will-80-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-bbc0ce492ec7

How much longer will it take to hit 85%?

This market will use the data at https://reddark.untone.uk/ as the resolution criterea. They are currently stating that "1765/8829 subreddits are currently dark" - 20%. If this figure ticks below 15%, the market resolves to YES.

The deadline is Wednesday 18th October at 22:00 UK time (the closing time of the market).

Resolution notes:

If the main Reddark site is down or unavailable, we will use https://reddark.io/ as a backup. If both are unavailable, I will attempt to resolve to the spirt of the market (eg. resolving YES if the sites are taken down because the protest is over and everything is reopened, resolving NO if it is very clear that those sites would show that the subreddits are still dark if they were available) or N/A if it's not possible to do so.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Oct 18, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.