Two weeks ago, Kevin McCarthy was removed as the Speaker of the House. Since then, there has been no Speaker.

Jim Jordan is currently the Republican nominee and Manifold thinks there's a 50% to 60% chance that he will be the next Speaker:

The first vote on the House floor is due to take place this afternoon at Midday local time. Manifold predicts a 90%+ chance that this vote will take place today, but less than a 15% chance that it will be decided on the first vote:

How many Republicans will vote against Jim Jordan in the first floor vote?